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Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-140/+110).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -140.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Out of all players in the league, Keegan Murray ranks in the 91st percentile for three-point attempts, posting 6.4 per game this year.Out of all players in the league, Keegan Murray slots into the 87th percentile for playing time, compiling a monstrous 32.5 minutes per game this year.In terms of offense, the Sacramento Kings's remarkable 121.3 points per game at home places 7th-most in the league this year.The matchup against Denver is a strong one for 3-pointers; when the Nuggets are the visiting squad, the other team's starting PFs have put up the 26th-highest three rate in the NBA this year (44.8%).The Sacramento Kings have played at the 2nd-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Keegan Murray has accumulated 2.7 personal fouls per game while at home this year, putting him in the 89th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone.The Denver Nuggets have played at the most lethargic pace in the league over the last 25 games, which should decrease possessions for the Sacramento Kings.Offensive rebounds preserve possession and create bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Kings grade out 4thworst in in the NBA with the home court advantage with only 8.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.Over the last 5 games, their opposition has snagged 12.0 offensive rebounds per game (6th-highest in the league) against the Nuggets (lengthening possessions that can create more opportunities for offense).This year, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 2.6 foul shots per game (15th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Nuggets, finding it difficult to draw fouls.
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