Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 2/2/2024

NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Indiana Pacers vs Sacramento Kings · Feb 2, 2024

Updated Feb 3, 2024 12:47 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has sunk 2.8 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.9 more than he's converted from downtown in all games this season while playing away from home.
Out of all players in the league, Keegan Murray measures in the 85th percentile for playing time, compiling a whopping 32.0 minutes per game on the road this year.
The Kings are expected to see an increase in possessions in this contest from facing the quickest tempo home team in the league this year (the Pacers).
The Sacramento Kings check in as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Pacers is a good one for getting to the charity stripe; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a massive 5.8 free throws per game this year (30th-most in the league).

Favors Under

In contrast to last year's 5.3 mark, Keegan Murray's off-target field goals have increased this year to 6.9 per game.
Keegan Murray has accumulated 2.7 personal fouls per game while playing on the road this year, ranking in the 87th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone.
The matchup against the Pacers is a challenging one for three-point attempts; opposing starting PFs have averaged the 15th-least three attempts per game in the league this year (2.5).
Over the last 25 games when they are away from home, opposing clubs have brought down 11.3 offensive rebounds per game (4th-highest in the league) vs. the Pacers (preserving possessions that can lead to added chances for offense).
As a team, the Sacramento Kings have been poor at drawing fouls recently: 2nd-worst in the NBA over the last 25 games, totaling a measly 20.4 foul shots per game.