Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 1/31/2024

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Keegan Murray

NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings · Jan 31, 2024

Updated Feb 1, 2024 3:58 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-130/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has attempted 12.9 shots from the field per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 9.7 rate last year.
Among all players in the league, Keegan Murray lands in the 90th percentile for three-point attempts while on the road, compiling 6.0 per game this year.
Among all players in the league, Keegan Murray registers in the 84th percentile for playing time, putting up a whopping 31.7 minutes per game while playing on the road this year.
This year when they are on the road, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 46.4% on three-pointers (30th-highest in the NBA) against the Heat, branding this as a strong matchup.
The Kings rank as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Heat have played at the least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 25 games, which should lead to decreased plays for the Kings.
As a team, the Sacramento Kings have been poor at getting to the foul line in recent days: worst in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court, totaling a measly 18.2 foul shot attempts per game.
The matchup vs. the Heat may be a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a mere 1.8 free throws per game over the last 10 games (11th-least in the league).
Keegan Murray ought to suffer a drop-off in output in all stat categories in light of being on the road in this contest.

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