Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 1/27/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings · Jan 27, 2024

Updated Jan 28, 2024 2:33 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has attempted 13.1 shots from the field per game this year, a big improvement over his 9.7 mark last year.
Keegan Murray has attempted 6.1 3-point shots per game on the road this year, ranking in the 90th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Out of all players in the NBA, Keegan Murray places in the 84th percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 31.6 minutes per game on the road this year.
The matchup against the Dallas Mavericks is a favorable one for shot attempts from the field; opposing starting PFs have tallied the 30th-most shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (16.0).
The 6th-quickest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Sacramento Kings.

Favors Under

Keegan Murray has accumulated 2.5 personal fouls per game while playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
The Sacramento Kings are expected to see a decline in possessions in this contest from competing against the 10th-most sluggish pace home offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Mavericks).
The Dallas Mavericks have given up the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (11.6) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Kings have been poor at drawing fouls recently: 2nd-worst in the league over the last 15 games away from their home court, totaling a mere 19.8 foul shots per game.
This year when they are away from home, opposing starting PFs have attempted 2.5 foul shots per game (13th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.