Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 1/22/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Atlanta Hawks · Jan 22, 2024

Updated Jan 23, 2024 3:52 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-146/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Keegan Murray comes in at the 92nd percentile for shot attempts from beyond the arc, putting up 6.5 per game this year.
Keegan Murray has played 32.8 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 87th percentile.
The matchup vs. Atlanta is a favorable one; when the Atlanta Hawks are away from home, they have given up the 28th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PFs this year (21.1).
The Kings have played at the 8th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games while on their home court.
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 5th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which should raise possessions for the Kings.

Favors Under

Keegan Murray has failed to convert 7.0 shot attempts from the field per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 5.3 rate last year.
Keegan Murray has tallied 2.6 personal fouls per game playing at home this year, ranking in the 85th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
Over the last 20 games when they have the home court advantage, their opposition has captured 11.6 offensive boards per game (4th-most in the league) vs. the Atlanta Hawks (retaining possessions that can result in added opportunities for offense).
As a team, the Sacramento Kings have been quite unsuccesful at getting to the foul line recently: worst in the league over the last 20 games, tallying just 20.3 foul shot attempts per game.
The showdown with Jalen Johnson when it comes to drawing fouls slots into the 21st percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting PFs attempting just 3.1 foul shots per game this year when they are playing at home.