Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 1/16/2024

NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Sacramento Kings · Jan 16, 2024

Updated Jan 17, 2024 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has attempted 13.0 field goals per game this year, a big improvement over his 9.7 mark last year.
Keegan Murray has successfully made 2.6 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.0 more than he's made overall this season on the road.
Keegan Murray has tallied 31.1 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the league.
The Kings have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Phoenix may be a positive one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 4.3 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Suns have the home court advantage (29th-most in the league).

Favors Under

Keegan Murray has tallied 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-whistled players in the league (84th percentile).
The matchup vs. the Phoenix Suns is a tough one for three-pointers; opposing starting PFs have shot for the 13th-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (29.1%).
The Sacramento Kings will likely suffer a reduction in opportunities in this game from squaring off against the 4th-slowest tempo home offense in the league this year (the Phoenix Suns).
This year, their opposition has secured 11.0 offensive boards per game (10th-highest in the league) against the Phoenix Suns (maintaining possessions that can lead to bonus opportunities for offense).
As a team, the Kings have been poor at getting to the free-throw line of late: 2nd-worst in the NBA over the last 20 games with a lowly 19.8 foul shots per game.