Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 12/23/2023

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Keegan Murray

NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Dec 23, 2023

Updated Dec 24, 2023 3:14 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has logged 24.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 8.2 more than he's logged in all games this year.
Out of all players in the NBA, Keegan Murray rates in the 84th percentile for playing time, averaging a whopping 32.0 minutes per game this year.
The Kings have played at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games while playing at home.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and spark bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Kings grade out 8thbest in in the league while at home with 10.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 14 games.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have allowed the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (8.0) in the league to opposing teams over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Keegan Murray comes in at the 85th percentile for personal fouls, compiling a whopping 2.7 fouls per game while at home this year.
This year, opposing starting PFs have totaled 14.5 points per game (15th-fewest in the league) against the Timberwolves, resulting in a difficult matchup for offensive production.
The Kings are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities today from squaring off against the 9th-most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).

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