Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 3/11/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Sacramento Kings · Mar 11, 2023

Updated Mar 11, 2023 10:01 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-122/-104).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has successfully made 40.0% of his three-pointers since the start of last season, ranking in the 94th percentile among all players in the league.
Keegan Murray has tallied 29.3 minutes per game since the start of last season, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 79th percentile.
The Sacramento Kings check in as the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games without the home court advantage.
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The matchup vs. the Suns may be a favorable one for getting to the free throw line; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a colossal 5.9 free throws per game over the last 10 games (27th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Phoenix is a tough one for 3-pointers; when the Suns are playing at home, the opposition's starting PFs have tallied the 14th-least three-point shots per game in the NBA since the start of last season (1.1).
The Suns have played at the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Kings.
The Sacramento Kings check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Suns have allowed the 7th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.9) in the league to the other team over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
Keegan Murray will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court tends to worsens player performance across the board.