Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 3/4/2023

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Keegan Murray

NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Mar 4, 2023

Updated Mar 5, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-128/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has converted 40.9% of his treys since the start of last season, putting him in the 96th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Keegan Murray has played 29.4 minutes per game since the start of last season, ranking among the most used players in the league: 79th percentile.
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the league over the last 10 games playing at home.
The Timberwolves have played at the fastest pace in the league this year, which should lead to more opportunities for the Kings.
As a team, the Sacramento Kings have been great at getting to the free throw line while at home: 5th-best in the NBA this year, averaging 23.8 free throws per game.

Favors Under

The matchup against Minnesota is a difficult one; when the Timberwolves are away from home, they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PFs this year (12.2).
The Sacramento Kings have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Timberwolves have given up the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (13.4) in the league to opposing teams over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).

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