Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 2/28/2023

NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Sacramento Kings · Feb 28, 2023

Updated Feb 28, 2023 11:56 PM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has made 40.8% of his 3-point shots since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile out of all players in the league.
Keegan Murray has been on the court for 29.2 minutes per game since the start of last season, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 79th percentile.
The Sacramento Kings have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games away from home.
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 5th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games.
The Thunder have played at the 5th-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games on their home court, which should boost possessions for the Kings.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Oklahoma is a difficult one for threes; when the Thunder are playing at home, opposing starting PFs have tallied the 13th-least 3-point shots per game in the league this year (0.9).
The Sacramento Kings have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Thunder have given up the 7th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.1) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Thunder is a challenging one for getting to the free throw line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted just 2.3 foul shots per game this year (15th-least in the league).
Keegan Murray will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road generally worsens player production in all facets of the game.