Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 2/10/2023

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Keegan Murray

NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks · Feb 10, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has made 3.6 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.7 higher than he's converted from three over the course of the season on his home court.
Keegan Murray has played 29.1 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 75th percentile.
The Sacramento Kings check in as the highest scoring offense in the league this year.
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 3rd-speediest pace in the league over the last 25 games while at home.
Keegan Murray has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games at home, 22.9% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season while playing at home.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Tim Hardaway Jr. is a challenging one for three-point attempts; when facing fellow starting SFs this year, they have attempted just 4.2 shots from downtown per game (7th percentile).
The Mavericks have played at the most sluggish pace in the NBA away from their home stadium this year, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Kings.
The Sacramento Kings rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

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