Keegan Murray Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 11/20/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Made 3 Point Shots

New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings · Nov 20, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 1:08 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has attempted 7.7 shots from downtown per game this year, a big improvement over his 6.1 rate last year.
In comparison to last season's 29.1 mark, Keegan Murray's playing time has risen this season to 34.0 minutes per game.
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 5th-quickest tempo in the league over the last 5 games.
The Kings will likely see a rise in plays in this game from being pitted against the 4th-fastest pace home offense in the league over the last 5 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and result in more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Sacramento Kings rank 11thbest in in the league playing at home with 11.1 offensive boards per game over the last 7 games.

Favors Under

Relative to last season's 34.7% mark, Keegan Murray's three-point proficiency has fallen this season to 21.1%.
As it relates to three-pointers, the Sacramento Kings's lackluster 35.2% rate of drained threes when playing at home settles in as the 10th-fewest in the league this year.
The matchup against New Orleans is a difficult one for three-point shots; when the New Orleans Pelicans are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting SFs have tallied the 10th-least 3-pointers per game in the league this year (1.1).
At home, the Pelicans have given up the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (14.4) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
Keegan Murray will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road usually lowers player production in all stat categories.