Keegan Murray Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 11/19/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Made 3 Point Shots

Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings · Nov 19, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:28 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has attempted 7.7 3-point shots per game this year, significantly more than his 6.1 rate last year.
In comparison to last year's 29.1 mark, Keegan Murray's playing time has jumped this year to 34.2 minutes per game.
The Kings have played at the 5th-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court.
The Kings are expected to see a rise in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-most up-tempo pace offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Dallas Mavericks).
Offensive rebounds save possession and spark more chances for scoring and assists, and the Sacramento Kings grade out 10thbest in in the NBA with 10.7 offensive boards per game over the last 6 games.

Favors Under

In comparison to last season's 34.7% rate, Keegan Murray's 3-point efficiency has fallen this season to 19.8%.
In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Sacramento Kings's poor 34.6% rate of drained threes measures as the 8th-lowest in the NBA this year.
The matchup vs. Dallas is a difficult one for 3-point shots; when the Mavericks have the home court advantage, opposing starting SFs have tallied the 9th-least treys per game in the league since the start of last season (1.6).
While at home, the Mavericks have given up the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (13.2) in the league to their opposition over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).
Keegan Murray stands to experience a decrease in production in all stat categories considering playing on the visting team in this game.