Jusuf Nurkic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/25/2024

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Jusuf Nurkic

NBA · Player Props

Jusuf Nurkic

C · Phoenix Suns

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns · Mar 25, 2024

Updated Mar 26, 2024 1:57 AM UTC

Analysis

Jusuf Nurkic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jusuf Nurkic has converted 57.6% of his shots from the field over the last 10 games on the road, 6.9% more than he's sunk over the course of the year while on the road.
The matchup vs. Zach Collins is a good one; he has given up a colossal 17.5 points per game when defending other starting Cs this year (100th percentile).
The Suns have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Spurs have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 5 games in their home stadium, which ought to lead to more possessions for the Phoenix Suns.
The Suns rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Compared to last year's 31.5% rate, Jusuf Nurkic's 3-point efficiency has tailed off this year to 21.3%.
Out of all players in the league, Jusuf Nurkic lands in the 99th percentile for personal fouls, averaging an enormous 3.3 fouls per game away from home this year.
The Phoenix Suns rank as the 2nd-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 25 games away from their home court with respect to shot attempts from downtown.
Jusuf Nurkic will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city usually reduces player performance across the board.

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