Jusuf Nurkic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2024

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Jusuf Nurkic

NBA · Player Props

Jusuf Nurkic

C · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Toronto Raptors · Mar 7, 2024

Updated Mar 8, 2024 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Jusuf Nurkic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jusuf Nurkic has sunk 62.7% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games at home, 9.2% more than he's made overall this season with the home court advantage.
The Suns check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games.
The matchup against the Toronto Raptors is a hard one for three-point shots; the other team has posted the 7th-lowest 3-point rate in the NBA over the last 25 games (35.7%).
The Phoenix Suns have played at the quickest tempo in the league over the last 5 games as the home team.
The Raptors have played at the speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to more plays for the Suns.

Favors Under

Jusuf Nurkic has successfully made a lowly 21.3% of his 3-point shots this year, a significant dropoff from his 31.5 rate last year.
Jusuf Nurkic has accumulated 3.4 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-whistled players in the league (99th percentile).
The number of 3-pointers made against Kelly Olynyk has been remarkably low (0.5 per game) when defending opposing starting Cs this year (20th percentile).
The Suns check in as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Toronto Raptors have given up the most offensive boards per game (12.1) in the league to opposing teams over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).

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