Jusuf Nurkic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/5/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jusuf Nurkic

C · Phoenix Suns

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns · Mar 5, 2024

Updated Mar 6, 2024 3:20 AM UTC

Analysis

Jusuf Nurkic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jusuf Nurkic has sunk 57.0% of his field goals over the last 15 games, 5.7% more than he's made in all games this season.
This year, their opposition has totaled 31.3 3-point attempts per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Denver Nuggets, designating this as a hard matchup.
The matchup vs. Nikola Jokic is a good one for shot attempts from the field; when facing opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a monstrous 11.8 field goals per game (93rd percentile).
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Phoenix Suns have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jusuf Nurkic has converted a measly 21.3% of his three-pointers this season, significantly lower than his 31.5 rate last season.
Out of all players in the NBA, Jusuf Nurkic measures in the 98th percentile for personal fouls, totaling a massive 3.2 fouls per game when playing away from home this year.
In terms of shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 2nd-least aggressive team in the league as the road team over the last 20 games has been the Phoenix Suns.
The Phoenix Suns are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-most sluggish tempo offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets).
Over the last 5 games when they are on the road, their opposition has grabbed 12.6 offensive boards per game (5th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Nuggets (retaining possessions that can result in added opportunities for offense).