Julius Randle Points - Player Prop Bet 11/24/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Julius Randle

F-C · New York Knicks

Points

New York Knicks vs Miami Heat · Nov 24, 2023

Updated Nov 25, 2023 12:33 AM EST

Analysis

Julius Randle Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Julius Randle has averaged 32.6 minutes per game when playing on the road this year, placing him in the 85th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.
In comparison to last season's 0.1 rate, Julius Randle's technical fouls have fallen this season to 0.0 per game.
The New York Knicks rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they are on their home court, their opposition has captured 10.1 offensive boards per game (8th-fewest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat (diminishing possessions that could otherwise result in bonus opportunities for offense).
Julius Randle will possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage generally boosts player production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

Julius Randle has tallied a measly 19.5 points per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 24.2 points per game last season.
Compared to last year's 8.1 mark, Julius Randle's shot attempts from beyond the arc have decreased this year to 6.2 per game.
As it relates to shooting, the New York Knicks's unimpressive 110.1 points per game settles in as the 7th-fewest in the league this year.
The matchup vs. Miami is a difficult one for 3-pointers; when the Miami Heat are at home, the opposition's starting PFs have shot for the 14th-lowest three rate in the NBA since the start of last season (28.0%).
The least up-tempo pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA this year has been the New York Knicks.