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Julius Randle

Julius Randle Points
Player Prop - 5/12/2023

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks

Julius Randle Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Julius Randle has scored 24.3 points per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the NBA by this metric: 95th percentile.

Julius Randle has attempted 8.1 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 5.4 rate last year.

Julius Randle has averaged 34.8 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 95th percentile.

The New York Knicks check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).

The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New York Knicks rank as the lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.

The matchup against the Heat is a hard one for threes; the opposition's starting PFs have shot for the 14th-lowest 3-point percentage in the league this year (28.5%).

The New York Knicks have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 25 games while on the road.

The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year, which should lead to fewer plays for the Knicks.

The matchup vs. Miami is a tough one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PFs have attempted just 2.8 foul shots per game this year when the Heat are playing at home (6th-least in the league).

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