Julius Randle Points - Player Prop Bet 5/10/2023

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Julius Randle

NBA · Player Props

Julius Randle

F-C · New York Knicks

Points

New York Knicks vs Miami Heat · May 10, 2023

Updated May 10, 2023 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Julius Randle Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Julius Randle has scored a terrific 24.3 points per game this season, a significant increase from his 20.1 points per game last season.
Julius Randle has attempted 8.1 treys per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 5.4 rate last year.
Julius Randle has tallied 34.6 minutes per game while at home this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
The New York Knicks check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The New York Knicks check in as the lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The matchup against Miami is a hard one for 3-pointers; when the Heat are the visiting squad, the other team's starting PFs have put up the 15th-lowest three rate in the league this year (26.0%).
The New York Knicks have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Knicks.
The matchup vs. the Heat is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 3.1 free throws per game this year (9th-least in the NBA).

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