Josh Richardson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/17/2024

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Josh Richardson

NBA · Player Props

Josh Richardson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat · Jan 17, 2024

Updated Jan 18, 2024 12:27 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Richardson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In regard to threes, the Miami Heat's terrific 38.4% rate of drained threes ranks 3rd-most in the league this year.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 7th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Heat.
This year, opposing squads have snagged 10.1 offensive boards per game (5th-lowest in the NBA) against the Raptors (lessening possessions that could otherwise lead to more opportunities for offense).
Among all players in the NBA, Josh Richardson ranks in the 96th percentile for foul-shot performance with a an exceptional 95.2% rate this year.
This year when they are away from home, opposing teams have attempted 19.0 foul shots per game (lowest in the league) vs. the Raptors, finding it difficult to get to the charity stripe.

Favors Under

Josh Richardson has missed 7.0 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.4 higher than he's missed over the course of the season away from home.
Over the last 5 games, opposing clubs have registered 125.2 points per game (2nd-most in the league) against the Raptors, identifying this as a favorable matchup for offensive efficiency.
The slowest pace-of-play away team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Miami Heat.
The Heat check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
Josh Richardson stands to suffer a reduction in efficiency for all stats as a result of being on the road in this matchup.

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