Josh Richardson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/10/2024

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Josh Richardson

NBA · Player Props

Josh Richardson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Jan 10, 2024

Updated Jan 11, 2024 12:43 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Richardson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup against the Thunder is a hard one for field goals; opposing clubs have put up the lowest field goal rate in the NBA this year (44.8%).
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 8th-quickest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to boost plays for the Miami Heat.
Out of all players in the NBA, Josh Richardson rates in the 82nd percentile for free-throw performance when playing at home with a a remarkable 88.9% rate this year.
As a team, the Heat have been very successful at getting to the free-throw line of late: 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 15 games with 26.5 foul shot attempts per game.
Josh Richardson is expected to see an increase in production across the board in light of enjoying the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Josh Richardson has averaged 0.4 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games while at home, 0.2 more than he's averaged in all games this season at home.
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 25 games.
Offensive rebounds save possession and create bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 5thworst in in the NBA with just 9.6 offensive boards per game this year.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have given up the most offensive boards per game (13.3) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a good one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing teams have attempted a monstrous 31.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (most in the league).

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