Josh Richardson Points - Player Prop Bet 11/28/2023

NBA · Player Props

Josh Richardson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks · Nov 28, 2023

Updated Nov 29, 2023 12:37 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Richardson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

When it comes to 3-pointers, the Miami Heat's superb 38.0% rate of made threes away from their home court measures as the 5th-highest in the league this year.
The matchup against Milwaukee is a positive one; when the Milwaukee Bucks are on their home court, they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting SGs this year (20.5).
The Heat will likely get a boost in opportunities today from facing the 3rd-most up-tempo pace visiting team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Milwaukee Bucks).
Josh Richardson has failed to convert 0.1 free throw attempts per game while playing at home this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA in this category: 10th percentile for misses at home.
The matchup against Milwaukee is a favorable one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted a whopping 4.4 foul shots per game this year when the Milwaukee Bucks are on their home court (28th-most in the league).

Favors Under

Josh Richardson has converted 37.0% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games at home, 5.7% lower than he's made in all games this year at home.
Out of all players in the NBA, Josh Richardson rates in the 76th percentile for technical fouls, averaging a colossal 0.1 fouls per game this year.
The Heat have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 5 games playing at home.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat grade out 6thworst in in the NBA at home with a mere 9.6 offensive boards per game this year.
This year, opposing clubs have brought down 11.6 offensive rebounds per game (10th-most in the league) vs. the Bucks (continuing possessions that can result in more chances for offense).