Josh Richardson Points - Player Prop Bet 11/25/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Josh Richardson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Brooklyn Nets vs Miami Heat · Nov 25, 2023

Updated Nov 25, 2023 11:17 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Richardson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last year's 10.2 clip, Josh Richardson's points per game have increased this year to 9.8.
With respect to three-point shots, the Heat's remarkable 38.2% rate of successful threes while playing at home rates 4th-best in the league this year.
This year when they are on the road, opposing clubs have grabbed 9.7 offensive boards per game (7th-fewest in the NBA) against the Brooklyn Nets (diminishing possessions that could otherwise lead to more opportunities for offense).
In contrast to last season's 90.1% clip, Josh Richardson's foul-shot prowess has surged this season to 100.0%.
Since the start of last season, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 3.5 free throws per game (25th-most in the league) against the Nets, finding it easy to draw fouls.

Favors Under

Josh Richardson has tallied 0.0 technical fouls per game this year, putting him among the most-whistled players in the league when it comes to getting T'ed up (75th percentile).
Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting SGs have averaged 28.7% on threes (14th-worst in the NBA) vs. the Brooklyn Nets, identifying this as a difficult matchup.
The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
The Miami Heat have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Josh Richardson will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road generally decreases stat production for all stats.