Josh Okogie Points - Player Prop Bet 10/24/2023

NBA · Player Props

Josh Okogie

G · Phoenix Suns

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns · Oct 24, 2023

Updated Oct 25, 2023 2:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Okogie Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+112/-138).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Josh Okogie has successfully made a whopping 2.2 field goals per game this season, a big improvement over his 0.8 rate last season.
Relative to his full-year mark of core.FORMAT(RATE2,1) minutes per home game, Josh Okogie's rate of playing time has spiked by core.FORMAT(ABS(DIFF_RATE),1) minutes over the last 15 games on his home court.
The Suns are expected to see a rise in plays in this contest from competing against the 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league this year (the Golden State Warriors).
The Suns check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
Compared to his full-season rate of core.FORMAT(RATE2,1) free throws per home game, Josh Okogie's rate of getting to the free-throw line has increased by core.FORMAT(ABS(DIFF_RATE),1) over the last 15 games playing at home.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Josh Okogie registers in the 19th percentile for three-point prowess without the home court advantage with a a feeble 24.4% rate this year.
This year when they are the visiting team, opposing starting SFs have tallied 11.2 field goal attempts per game (13th-lowest in the league) against the Golden State Warriors, branding this as a difficult matchup.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 9th-least up-tempo pace in the league this year.
This year when they are on the road, their opposition has captured 10.8 offensive rebounds per game (10th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Warriors (retaining possessions that can create more opportunities for offense).
As a team, the Phoenix Suns have been lousy at getting to the free-throw line at home: 4th-worst in the NBA this year, drawing a lowly 20.9 foul shot attempts per game.