Josh Okogie Points - Player Prop Bet 5/5/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Josh Okogie

G · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets · May 5, 2023

Updated May 5, 2023 7:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Okogie Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Josh Okogie has sunk 1.7 threes per game over the last 15 games at home, 0.7 higher than he's converted from beyond the arc in all games this year playing at home.
Josh Okogie has been on the court for 26.6 minutes per game over the last 15 games at home, 8.6 higher than he's been on the court for over the course of the year at home.
The Phoenix Suns check in as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
Josh Okogie has successfully made 93.3% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 22.2% more than he's made overall this season.
Josh Okogie will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on your home court usually boosts player performance in all stat categories.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a hard one for shot attempts from the field; the other team's starting SFs have totaled the 15th-least FG attempts per game in the NBA this year (10.7).
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 9th-most sluggish pace in the league this year.
The Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games away from their home court, which should lead to decreased plays for the Suns.
Away from their home court, the Nuggets have given up the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.3) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Phoenix Suns have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls: 5th-worst in the NBA this year, averaging a measly 21.9 foul shots per game.