Josh Okogie Points - Player Prop Bet 5/1/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Josh Okogie

G · Phoenix Suns

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns · May 1, 2023

Updated May 2, 2023 1:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Okogie Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Josh Okogie has sunk an impressive 2.2 baskets per game this season, significantly higher than his 0.8 mark last season.
Josh Okogie has been on the court for 25.5 minutes per game over the last 15 games away from home, 6.7 more than he's been on the court for overall this year on the road.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 10th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games on the road.
The Phoenix Suns have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Josh Okogie has attempted 4.1 free throws per game over the last 15 games when playing away from home, 1.6 higher than he's attempted overall this year on the road.

Favors Under

Josh Okogie has successfully made 25.6% of his shots from downtown this year, putting him in the 22nd percentile among all players in the NBA.
The matchup against the Nuggets is a challenging one for shot attempts from the field; the other team's starting SFs have averaged the 15th-least shot attempts per game in the league this year (10.7).
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should reduce possessions for the Suns.
The Nuggets have given up the 8th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Phoenix Suns have been poor at getting to the foul line on the road: 5th-worst in the league this year, drawing just 21.2 foul shot attempts per game.