Josh Okogie Points - Player Prop Bet 4/6/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Josh Okogie

G · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets · Apr 6, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 1:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Okogie Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Josh Okogie has attempted 9.0 shots per game over the last 10 games while on his home court, 3.4 higher than he's attempted in all games this season at home.
Josh Okogie has sunk 2.1 shots from downtown per game over the last 10 games at home, 1.1 more than he's made from 3-point range overall this year with the home court advantage.
Josh Okogie has tallied 29.5 minutes per game over the last 10 games while at home, 11.9 more than he's tallied overall this season at home.
The Phoenix Suns have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Nuggets have given up the 10th-least offensive rebounds per game (10.1) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Phoenix Suns have been the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games when playing at home.
The matchup against the Nuggets is a difficult one for shots from the field; the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged the 12th-least field goal attempts per game in the league this year (11.2).
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 9th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA this year.
The Nuggets have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home city, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Suns.
The matchup against the Nuggets is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 2.4 foul shots per game this year (15th-least in the league).