Josh Hart Points - Player Prop Bet 1/27/2024

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Josh Hart

NBA · Player Props

Josh Hart

G · New York Knicks

Points

New York Knicks vs Miami Heat · Jan 27, 2024

Updated Jan 28, 2024 2:33 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Hart Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Offensive rebounds maintain possession and spark further chances for scoring and assists, and the Knicks grade out 2ndbest in in the NBA with 12.3 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.
The Heat have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.5) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
This matchup is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; their opposition has attempted a measly 19.8 free throws per game when the Heat are on the road this year (3rd-least in the NBA).
Josh Hart figures to get a boost in effectiveness for all stats in light of enjoying the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Josh Hart has tallied 0.1 technical fouls per game while on his home court this year, placing him in the 76th percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled when it comes to technicals.
The Knicks check in as the 9th-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.
Over the last 10 games, opposing clubs have averaged 38.7 three attempts per game (4th-most in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, making this a positive matchup.
The Knicks have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league at home this year.
The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the New York Knicks.

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