Josh Hart Points - Player Prop Bet 11/15/2023

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Josh Hart

NBA · Player Props

Josh Hart

G · New York Knicks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks · Nov 15, 2023

Updated Nov 16, 2023 12:38 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Hart Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup against Atlanta is a favorable one; when the Hawks are on their home court, they have allowed the 26th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting SFs this year (20.0).
The Knicks are expected to see an increase in possessions in this contest from being pitted against the 2nd-quickest tempo road team in the league this year (the Hawks).
Offensive rebounds save possession and bring about additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Knicks grade out 14thbest in in the league while on their home court with 14.2 offensive boards per game this year.
When playing on the road, the Atlanta Hawks have given up the 5th-least offensive rebounds per game (8.8) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 5 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 3.6 free throws per game (24th-highest in the NBA) against the Hawks, finding it easy to get to the foul line.

Favors Under

Josh Hart has sunk a measly 35.1% of his field goals this season, quite a bit lower than his 50.5 rate last season.
Relative to last year's 38.4% clip, Josh Hart's 3-point performance has fallen this year to 26.2%.
Josh Hart has committed 3.0 personal fouls per game this season, significantly more than his 2.6 fouls per game last season.
The Knicks check in as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league at home this year.
The New York Knicks have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league this year.

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