Josh Hart Points - Player Prop Bet 5/12/2023

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Josh Hart

NBA · Player Props

Josh Hart

G · New York Knicks

Points

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks · May 12, 2023

Updated May 12, 2023 11:41 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Hart Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Josh Hart has converted 44.9% of his 3-pointers over the last 15 games on the road, 9.1% higher than he's made from 3-point range in all games this year while on the road.
Josh Hart has played 31.8 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 85th percentile.
The New York Knicks check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
This matchup is a hard one for drawing fouls; opposing squads have attempted a mere 19.9 free throws per game when the Heat have the home court advantage this year (least in the league).

Favors Under

Josh Hart has tallied 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's tallied in all games this season.
The New York Knicks rank as the lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.
This matchup is a good one for three-pointers; when the Heat are on their home court, opposing squads have averaged the 2nd-most 3-pointers per game in the NBA against them this year (13.4).
The New York Knicks have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 25 games while on the road.
The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year, which should lead to fewer plays for the Knicks.

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