Josh Hart Points - Player Prop Bet 5/6/2023

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Josh Hart

NBA · Player Props

Josh Hart

G · New York Knicks

Points

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks · May 6, 2023

Updated May 5, 2023 8:16 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Hart Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Josh Hart has attempted 10.0 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 3.0 higher than he's attempted overall this season.
Josh Hart has averaged 37.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.5 more than he's averaged in all games this season.
The matchup against the Heat is a good one for three-point attempts; the opposition's starting SGs have tallied the 30th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.9).
The New York Knicks check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while playing away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.1) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Josh Hart has tallied 2.5 personal fouls per game when playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
The New York Knicks have been the 5th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The New York Knicks have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games while on the road.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league this year, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Knicks.
The matchup vs. the Heat is a difficult one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SGs have attempted a measly 2.5 free throws per game this year (14th-least in the league).

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