Josh Green Points - Player Prop Bet 4/2/2023

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Josh Green

NBA · Player Props

Josh Green

G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks · Apr 2, 2023

Updated Apr 3, 2023 2:53 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Green Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+108/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 3rd-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of attempts from downtown.
The Hawks have played at the 3rd-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should increase plays for the Mavericks.
Josh Green has successfully made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 23.2% higher than he's sunk in all games this season when playing on the road.

Favors Under

Josh Green has averaged 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the league (87th percentile).
The matchup against the Hawks is a good one; they have given up the 2nd-most points per game in the NBA to their opposition over the last 20 games (122.9).
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the slowest pace in the league away from their home court this year.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
Josh Green will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court generally worsens stat production in all facets of the game.

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