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Jose Alvarado

Jose Alvarado Points
Player Prop - 2/23/2024

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat

Jose Alvarado Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jose Alvarado has attempted 5.2 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 1.5 more than he's attempted over the course of the season at home.

The Pelicans have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage.

The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 5 games, opposing teams have grabbed 6.2 offensive boards per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Heat (shortening possessions that could otherwise lead to additional opportunities for offense).

This matchup is a tough one for getting to the foul line; opposing squads have attempted a lowly 19.6 foul shots per game when the Heat are the visiting squad this year (4th-least in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Jose Alvarado rates in the 21st percentile for scoring performance while at home with a a weak 38.8% rate this year.

In terms of shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 8th-least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Pelicans.

This matchup is a favorable one for three-point attempts; their opposition has averaged the 4th-most three attempts per game in the league over the last 20 games (38.3).

The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games away from their home court, which should lead to fewer possessions for the New Orleans Pelicans.

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