Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 3/19/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · Sacramento Kings

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Mar 19, 2025

Updated Mar 20, 2025 2:00 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has sunk 55.8% of his field goal attempts this year, placing him in the 90th percentile out of all players in the league.
The 9th-fastest pace home offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Kings.
The Sacramento Kings will likely get a boost in possessions in this game from competing against the 5th-most up-tempo pace-of-play visiting offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Cavaliers).
Offensive rebounds save possession and produce further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Kings grade out 10th-best in in the NBA while at home with 12.1 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.
Jonas Valanciunas figures to see a rise in efficiency in all facets of the game on account of having the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Jonas Valanciunas slots into the 13th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, tallying 0.5 per game this year.
Jonas Valanciunas has accumulated 2.2 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA (77th percentile).
The Sacramento Kings have been the 6th-least aggressive offense in the NBA with the home court advantage this year as it relates to 3-point attempts.
The matchup vs. Jarrett Allen is a difficult one for 3-pointers; when Allen is playing on the road and facing fellow starting Cs this year, they have averaged a lowly 0.7 treys per game (3rd percentile).
The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting Cs vs. Jarrett Allen has been very low this year (2.3 free throws per game when they are playing at home: 14th percentile).