Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 3/5/2025

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Jonas Valanciunas

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · Sacramento Kings

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Sacramento Kings · Mar 5, 2025

Updated Mar 6, 2025 4:59 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has sunk 100.0% of his three-pointers over the last 5 games on the road, 72.7% more than he's converted from beyond the arc over the course of the season without the home court advantage.
The clash with Nikola Jokic lands in just the 97th percentile for difficulty with the other team's starting Cs hitting a colossal 6.1 baskets per game this year.
The Kings are expected to see an increase in plays in this game from facing the 5th-fastest pace-of-play team in the league this year (the Nuggets).
The Sacramento Kings check in as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).
Jonas Valanciunas has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 12.8% higher than he's made overall this season.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has accumulated 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games while playing on the road, 0.9 higher than he's accumulated overall this year on the road.
The Sacramento Kings check in as the 5th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA as the road team this year.
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Jonas Valanciunas will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city tends to decrease player performance in all stat categories.

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