Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 3/3/2025

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · Sacramento Kings

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings · Mar 3, 2025

Updated Mar 4, 2025 1:54 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has made 63.8% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games, 7.6% higher than he's put through the net overall this year.
Jonas Valanciunas has successfully made 100.0% of his treys over the last 5 games on the road, 72.7% higher than he's converted from three over the course of the year while playing on the road.
The matchup against Dwight Powell is a strong one for field goal attempts; when defending opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a monstrous 11.7 field goals per game (97th percentile).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and create added chances for scoring and assists, and the Sacramento Kings grade out 6th-best in in the league while on the road with 12.3 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.
The matchup with Dwight Powell in regard to getting to the charity stripe ranks in only the 89th percentile for difficulty with rival starting Cs attempting a monstrous 3.8 foul shots per game this year when they are on the away squad.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has accumulated 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 more than he's accumulated overall this season.
With respect to three-point shots, the Kings's feeble 33.2% rate of sunk threes as the visting team ranks 3rd-worst in the NBA this year.
The Kings have played at the 6th-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 5 games.
The Sacramento Kings will likely suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from competing against the 7th-slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Mavericks).
Jonas Valanciunas will not enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on the road usually reduces player production in all facets of the game.