Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 4/5/2024

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Jonas Valanciunas

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs San Antonio Spurs · Apr 5, 2024

Updated Apr 6, 2024 12:37 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-112/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ +104 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Jonas Valanciunas places in the 85th percentile for scoring ability while at home with an excellent 54.9% rate this year.
When guarding other starting Cs, Victor Wembanyama ranks in the 100th percentile with a whopping 12.3 shots from the field against him per game this year.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the league away from their home city this year, which ought to increase plays for the New Orleans Pelicans.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and result in bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the New Orleans Pelicans rank 9th-best in in the NBA while at home with 11.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.
Jonas Valanciunas will likely get a boost in output in all stat categories in light of having the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has sunk 15.3% of his attempts from downtown over the last 15 games, 15.6% less than he's made over the course of the year.
Among all players in the NBA, Jonas Valanciunas measures in the 85th percentile for personal fouls, averaging a monstrous 2.4 fouls per game on his home court this year.
In terms of scoring, the New Orleans Pelicans's lackluster 106.0 points per game ranks 6th-fewest in the league over the last 5 games.
The Pelicans have played at the 8th-least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 5 games.

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