Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 3/1/2024

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Jonas Valanciunas

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers · Mar 1, 2024

Updated Mar 2, 2024 2:13 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has made 50.0% of his treys over the last 5 games at home, 20.0% higher than he's sunk over the course of the season at home.
The matchup vs. Myles Turner is a good one for 3-pointers; when Turner is playing on the road fellow starting Cs this year, they have made a massive 42.7% of their attempts from downtown (87th percentile).
The Pacers have played at the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play in the league this year, which should lead to more plays for the New Orleans Pelicans.
The New Orleans Pelicans rank as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games as the home team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jonas Valanciunas has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games at home, 15.3% more than he's made overall this season with the home court advantage.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has tallied 2.7 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage this year, placing him in the 90th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
The New Orleans Pelicans check in as the 8th-least aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to 3-point attempts.
While playing away from home, the Pacers have allowed the 8th-most offensive boards per game (12.0) in the league to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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