Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 2/2/2024

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Jonas Valanciunas

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs New Orleans Pelicans · Feb 2, 2024

Updated Feb 3, 2024 1:43 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has made 54.6% of his shot attempts from the field away from his home court this year, placing him in the 85th percentile among all players in the league.
The matchup vs. Victor Wembanyama is a strong one for shot attempts from the field; when squaring off against fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted an enormous 11.7 shots made from the field per game (97th percentile).
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 4th-quickest pace in the NBA this year, which ought to raise opportunities for the Pelicans.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Pelicans grade out 8thbest in in the NBA with 11.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has been called for 3.1 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA (97th percentile).
In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the 3rd-least aggressive offense in the NBA away from home this year has been the Pelicans.
Over the last 10 games, opposing teams have brought down 12.5 offensive boards per game (2nd-highest in the NBA) against the Spurs (lengthening possessions that can result in more opportunities for offense).
Jonas Valanciunas will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city usually worsens player performance in all stat categories.

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