Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 1/27/2024

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs New Orleans Pelicans · Jan 27, 2024

Updated Jan 28, 2024 3:26 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Jonas Valanciunas lands in the 83rd percentile for shooting proficiency while playing on the road with a an outstanding 53.6% rate this year.
The matchup against Brook Lopez is a strong one for shot attempts from the field; when defending other starting Cs this year, they have attempted a colossal 12.0 shots made from the field per game (100th percentile).
The Pelicans will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from sharing the court with the quickest pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Bucks).
The Pelicans check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jonas Valanciunas has attempted 4.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 1.1 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season on the road.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has accumulated 3.1 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the league (97th percentile).
The Pelicans rank as the 5th-least aggressive offense in the NBA when playing on the road this year in terms of shot attempts from downtown.
The 4th-least up-tempo pace visiting offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Pelicans.
Playing at home, the Bucks have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (11.5) in the league to opposing squads over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Brook Lopez is a challenging one for drawing fouls; when facing opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a lowly 2.6 free throws per game (13th percentile).