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Jonas Valanciunas

Jonas Valanciunas Points
Player Prop - 1/12/2024

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the league, Jonas Valanciunas lands in the 82nd percentile for shooting proficiency while playing away from home with a a phenomenal 54.0% rate this year.

Jonas Valanciunas has made 63.3% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games, 26.1% more than he's made from beyond the arc overall this year.

The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a tough one for shots from behind the three-point arc; opposing teams have totaled the 3rd-fewest three attempts per game in the league this year (31.4).

When facing fellow starting Cs, Nikola Jokic ranks in the 90th percentile with an enormous 11.0 shot attempts from the field against him per game this year.

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Pelicans grade out 4thbest in in the NBA with 12.4 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Jonas Valanciunas has accumulated 3.2 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA (96th percentile).

With respect to 3-point attempts, the 3rd-least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the New Orleans Pelicans.

The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games.

The Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace in the league this year, which should reduce possessions for the Pelicans.

Over the last 15 games, opposing teams have collected 11.2 offensive rebounds per game (7th-most in the league) against the Nuggets (saving possessions that can generate additional opportunities for offense).

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