Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 1/3/2024

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Jonas Valanciunas

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans · Jan 3, 2024

Updated Jan 4, 2024 2:59 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Jonas Valanciunas comes in at the 81st percentile for scoring proficiency without the home court advantage with a a stellar 53.6% rate this year.
This year when they are away from home, opposing clubs have averaged 30.8% on three-pointers (lowest in the league) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, identifying this as a challenging matchup.
When at home and squaring off against fellow starting Cs, Rudy Gobert ranks in the 100th percentile with a massive 2.7 3-pointers attempted against him per game this year.
The Pelicans have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games as the road team.
The Timberwolves have played at the 10th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home stadium, which should boost possessions for the New Orleans Pelicans.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Jonas Valanciunas comes in at the 96th percentile for personal fouls, putting up a whopping 3.2 fouls per game this year.
With respect to three-point attempts, the 4th-least aggressive team in the league this year has been the Pelicans.
While at home, the Timberwolves have given up the 4th-most offensive boards per game (12.2) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jonas Valanciunas should suffer a drop-off in output for all stats in light of playing on the visting team in this matchup.

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