Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 12/23/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston Rockets · Dec 23, 2023

Updated Dec 24, 2023 4:00 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-118/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has converted 67.3% of his shots from the field over the last 10 games at home, 6.0% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this year while playing at home.
Jonas Valanciunas has converted 61.7% of his treys over the last 5 games, 25.1% higher than he's made from 3-point range over the course of the year.
The matchup against the Rockets is a hard one for threes; their opposition has shot for the lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (31.4%).
The number of shots from the field against Alperen Sengun has been very high (12.4 per game) when away from his home court and defending other starting Cs this year (83rd percentile).
The Pelicans have played at the 10th-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has tallied 4.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games while playing at home, 1.0 more than he's tallied overall this year at home.
The New Orleans Pelicans have been the least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court when it comes to 3-point attempts.
The Rockets have played at the 5th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA away from their home city this year, which should lead to fewer possessions for the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Rockets have allowed the most offensive boards per game (13.8) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a good one for getting to the charity stripe; their opposition has attempted a monstrous 27.5 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (most in the league).