Jonas Valanciunas Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 11/20/2023

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Jonas Valanciunas

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Made 3 Point Shots

New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings · Nov 20, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 2:22 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the New Orleans Pelicans's terrific 38.2% rate of drained threes playing at home settles in as the 4th-strongest in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The 4th-speediest pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pelicans.
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 5th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games away from their home court, which should boost plays for the Pelicans.
The Kings have allowed the 2nd-least offensive boards per game (8.6) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
Jonas Valanciunas is expected to see a spike in output in all stat categories on account of possessing the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Jonas Valanciunas slots into the 25th percentile for three-point performance with a a weak 25.7% rate this year.
Among all players in the NBA, Jonas Valanciunas places in the 78th percentile for personal fouls, averaging a massive 2.6 fouls per game this year.
This year when they are on the road, the opposing team's starting Cs have averaged 1.3 three attempts per game (10th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Sacramento Kings, making this a hard matchup.
Offensive rebounds save possession and bring about further chances for scoring and assists, but the Pelicans grade out 8thworst in in the NBA with just 9.5 offensive rebounds per game this year.

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