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John Collins

John Collins Points
Player Prop - 1/4/2025

Miami Heat vs Utah Jazz

John Collins Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Among all players in the league, John Collins rates in the 83rd percentile for shooting ability away from home with a superb 53.5% rate this year.

John Collins has sunk 48.2% of his shots from downtown over the last 10 games, 8.8% more than he's converted from downtown in all games this year.

This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged 46.4% on 3-pointers (best in the NBA) against the Heat, marking this as a good matchup.

The 5th-quickest tempo road team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Jazz.

The Utah Jazz have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

John Collins has committed 2.9 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (95th percentile).

The Utah Jazz check in as the 10th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.

The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 10 games in their home city, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Utah Jazz.

The matchup against the Heat may be a difficult one for drawing fouls; opposing starting PFs have attempted a lowly 1.8 free throws per game over the last 10 games (2nd-least in the league).

John Collins will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling tends to decrease stat production for all stats.

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