John Collins Points - Player Prop Bet 12/23/2023

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NBA · Player Props

John Collins

F-C · Utah Jazz

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Utah Jazz · Dec 23, 2023

Updated Dec 24, 2023 12:30 AM EST

Analysis

John Collins Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

John Collins has sunk 5.4 shots made from the field per game when playing away from home this year, putting him in the 76th percentile among all players in the league.
The matchup against the Toronto Raptors is a favorable one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; opposing starting PFs have averaged the 26th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (4.9).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Jazz grade out 2ndbest in in the league with 13.4 offensive boards per game this year.
The Raptors have allowed the 6th-least offensive rebounds per game (10.4) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
John Collins has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 21.4% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this season.

Favors Under

John Collins has committed 2.8 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the league (88th percentile).
In terms of offense, the Jazz's unimpressive 106.3 points per game as the road team measures as the 2nd-weakest in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 5th-slowest tempo in the league in their home city this year, which ought to lead to fewer plays for the Utah Jazz.
Over the last 25 games, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 2.7 free throws per game (11th-lowest in the NBA) against the Toronto Raptors, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls.
John Collins will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling usually reduces stat production in all facets of the game.