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Joel Embiid

Joel Embiid Points
Player Prop - 5/9/2023

Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Joel Embiid has averaged 32.3 points per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA by this standard: 100th percentile.

Joel Embiid has played 33.0 minutes per game away from home this year, ranking in the 89th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.

The Philadelphia 76ers have been the 7th-highest scoring offense in the NBA when playing away from home this year.

The matchup against the Celtics is a favorable one for threes; the other team's starting Cs have averaged the 26th-most treys per game in the league this year (0.6).

While at home, the Celtics have given up the 5th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.5) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Joel Embiid has converted 14.5% of his three-point attempts over the last 15 games, -13.3% lower than he's converted from three overall this season.

The Philadelphia 76ers have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 25 games.

The Celtics have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should decrease plays for the 76ers.

The Philadelphia 76ers have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Joel Embiid will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road usually lowers player performance in all facets of the game.

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