Jevon Carter Points - Player Prop Bet 4/22/2023

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Jevon Carter

NBA · Player Props

Jevon Carter

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks · Apr 22, 2023

Updated Apr 22, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Jevon Carter Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jevon Carter has converted 3.0 three-point shots per game over the last 10 games on the road, 0.8 more than he's converted from downtown over the course of the season when playing away from home.
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games while playing on the road.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Jevon Carter has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 10 games, 14.7% more than he's sunk over the course of the year.

Favors Under

Jevon Carter has averaged 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, 0.2 higher than he's averaged over the course of the season on the road.
This matchup is a strong one for three-pointers; when the Heat are at home, opposing clubs have totaled the 2nd-most three-point shots per game in the NBA against them this year (13.6).
The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Bucks.
Jevon Carter will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court tends to worsens stat production across the board.

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