Jevon Carter Points - Player Prop Bet 4/19/2023

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Jevon Carter

NBA · Player Props

Jevon Carter

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat · Apr 19, 2023

Updated Apr 20, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Jevon Carter Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-138/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jevon Carter has sunk 38.8% of his shots from downtown this year, putting him in the 85th percentile among all players in the NBA.
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 3rd-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games.
The Milwaukee Bucks have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
Jevon Carter has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 10 games, 14.7% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season.

Favors Under

Jevon Carter has averaged 1.9 personal fouls per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 1.0 fouls per game last year.
This matchup is a good one for three-pointers; their opposition have tallied the 4th-most threes per game in the league this year (13.0).
The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games without the home court advantage, which should reduce possessions for the Bucks.
As a team, the Milwaukee Bucks have been quite unsuccesful at getting to the free throw line of late: worst in the NBA over the last 5 games playing at home with a mere 15.6 foul shot attempts per game.

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