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Jeff Green

Jeff Green Points
Player Prop - 6/12/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Jeff Green Points Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-128/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +112 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jeff Green has sunk 100.0% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last 5 games, 70.7% more than he's made overall this year.

The Denver Nuggets have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

While on the road, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Jeff Green has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 26.8% higher than he's sunk overall this season.

The matchup vs. the Heat may be a strong one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted an enormous 4.7 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (29th-most in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Jeff Green has played just 18.6 minutes per game this season, significantly lower than his 24.0 minutes per game last season.

The matchup vs. Miami is a challenging one for 3-pointers; when the Heat are on the road, the other team's starting PFs have shot for the 14th-lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (26.7%).

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Nuggets.

As a team, the Denver Nuggets have been bad at getting to the free throw line: worst in the league this year, averaging just 22.3 foul shots per game.

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